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ABC News and Fox News polls: Bush has 5 point lead

ABC News poll – October 19 – 2:00 PM PDT
The telephone survey of likely voters from Oct. 16 to Oct. 18 showed 51 percent would vote for Bush and 46 percent for Kerry. A similar poll conducted from Oct. 14 to Oct. 17 showed Bush with 50 percent and Kerry with 47 percent.

FOX NEWS POLL
In the days following the final presidential debate, Bush has not only continued to solidify his position with independent voters, but he is also holding his ground with women voters — a traditional Democratic voting group that Kerry needs in his column.

Today Bush has a five-point lead, receiving 48 percent to Kerry’s 43 percent among likely voters. When independent candidate Ralph Nader is included he receives 2 percent, Bush 49 percent and Kerry 42 percent. Two weeks ago Bush had a two-point lead over Kerry in the three-way race, and a three-point lead in the head-to-head matchup.

Men are more likely to support Bush over Kerry (51 percent to 41 percent), and women also give a slight edge to the president (47 percent to 45 percent). Married women, a voting group many are watching this year, give their support to Bush (49 percent to 43 percent), while single women support Kerry (49 percent to 41 percent).

By a margin of 52 percent to 34 percent, self-identified independent voters today are backing Bush. This is up from an 11-point advantage the president had among this group two weeks ago.

Almost all Bush supporters (81 percent) describe their vote as being “for Bush,” with only 15 percent saying their vote is “against Kerry.”

Supporters of the Democratic challenger are more divided, as 56 percent say their vote is “for Kerry” and 37 percent say “against Bush.”

Joel Johannesen
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