No party had gained ground; therefore…
BY Joel Johannesen
Dec 27 2005
There is no forum discussion available.
... therefore…
.jpg)
Headline in Vancouver Sun, 12/20/05, based on an Ottawa Citizen story (both Canwest Global papers)
...plant a seed hoping to convince people that only the Conservative Party hasn’t gained any ground! Tell ’em they “failed” to gain any ground!
But first, you’ll have to explain to me how the other parties have gained ground, and how it’s only the Tories who have “failed” to gain ground. Let’s review their handy chart!:
Spot that surge in Liberal support! They started at 34 and ZOOOOOOMED all the way up to 34! The didn’t “fail” nuttin! And the NDP? Wow! They went from 18 to 20 back down to 19! But they didn’t “fail” anything! Only the Conservatives “failed”. See? Now yer thinkin’ like a liberal!
They made sure in their excellent balanced reporting that they included these juicy lines too:
“The Conservatives cannot seem to get over the 30 per cent hump in support for the current election campaign.”
...“The low point for the Conservatives came in a Decima poll Dec. 6 when only 26 per cent support was found, with a margin of error of 1.5 per cent.”
...“Donna Dasko of Environics said Monday that the Conservatives must be confounded by their failure to move up in the polls”...
Excellent reporting! Fair and balanced! No liberal media bias here! Move on!
I am aghast! The Canadian media biased….....noooooo, say it ain’t so Joel!
Reality check….we all knew the media would not be able at any time during this election to be UNBIASED towards the CPC. After all, at minimum 95% of the media in this country ARE members of the LEFT-WING SOCIAL ELITE.
Hmmmm, so since all that has happened to the federal Liberals since the last election, their support has only dropped .90%. Interesting. I wonder why PM Martin did his best to avoid an election last spring and then again in late autumn. I guess Strategic and the rest of these pollers just know more than government insiders. In Ontario, the Conservatives were even with the liberals as of mid November according to real polls where more than 200 people are surveyed. That was before the Liberals launched their disastrous campaign.
We all know that the liberal way to deal with bias is to impose the OPPOSITE bias on the offending institutions, good old ‘affirmative action’. Lefty reporters seem to love affirmative action.
Soooo, imagine the squeals of outrage if it were suggested that biased reporters and editors now be required to incorporate visible pro-conservative bias in their coverage….
Yes it is typical and fully expected. Still manages to perturb me right off though.
I am not the slightest bit surprised as to the usual left wing biased extremism found out here on the left coast, I have seen it most of my life. Who do you think the editors/“reporters” etc. are..most of them are either from left wing special interest groups or they are intellectual elitists that will do anything to be “hip and cool” here in lala land. It is not going to change whatsoever! So, the only thing that can change is us and the way we fight to have our message and the truth put “out there.”
Today in the Winnipeg Sun columnist Hartley Steward (‘Harper should be leading the pack’) asks “Why aren’t the polls moving?” He then offers up the answer to his own question.
“The explanation, I think, can be found in the campaign a year ago, which saw the Liberals come from behind in the polls to form a minority government. With the help of the national media, the Liberals, and particularly Martin, were able to paint such a sad and sorry picture of Harper and his party that the image persists into this campaign.”
“But most importantly, he (Harper) will need help from the national media. Until he can make them believe, the polls will remain the same.”
The future of this once great nation lies in the hands of a pack of unscrupulous and dangerously biased MSM! What a sorry state of affairs whereby so many citizens, mostly residing in the GTA, are either gullible to the extreme, too lazy or to stupid to educate themselves. What a shocking and truly sad state of affairs indeed.
I am doing my part to inform my friends and relatives in the GTA. I have sent them a link to this site as well as a few others. Whenever something like this comes out I e-mail it to them. Everylittle bit helps. My neice passes it along to her friends and so on. Hopefully we are getting the message out in spite of the MSM.
You are right, Odie. We PTC people may be accustomed to this nonsense, but others would be shocked. I like your example of passing along these items to others. It is so much more empowering to actually make educational use of these cases rather than to sit around going, “figures”. Good on ya, Odie.
The principal difficulty isn’t bias, it’s ignorance. The media doesn’t have a clue what polls mean.
For example, you can’t take a national poll with 1000 respondents and make conclusions about, for example, B.C. You need a sample size of at least 800 to be able to have a useful sample size. That’s 800 in B.C., 800 in PEI, 800 in Ontario, 800 in downtown Toronto, or you simply can’t make useful judgments about voters trends in those particular segments. (According to polling theory, sample size should be the same whether you’re polling a city, a province, Canada, the U.S., or China, once you achieve a minimum population size to be sampled.)
Another example, the margin of error. A party might be four points ahead, but we’ll see them say “but that’s within the margin of error, meaning they’re virtually tied”. Uh, no. It means they could be tied. Or they could be eight points ahead. We don’t have a way of knowing with more precision without going to the ideal sample size of approximately 2000. And even that will be completely conkered 1 in 20 times.
Polls that distribute the undecided vote in the same proportion as the decided vote are relying on the bandwagon effect. This is a dangerous election to be doing that. The numbers should be reported as they actually are, and the undecided should have its own number.
But the most important distinction is the polling of “likely voters”. Most reputable U.S. polls use a much larger sample size and they then glean from those respondents the responses of those who declare themselves likely to vote. This is a far more accurate means of predicting voter inclinations.
Looking at the polls that have come out so far, what we know is:
1. The Conservatives have stayed consistently within one or two points of the Liberals outside of Quebec.
2. The Liberals have already peaked, and are slowly losing ground, on a relative basis. Their greatest loss is in Quebec.
3. The Conservatives have bottomed out, and are slowly gaining ground, on a relative basis. Their greatest gain is in Ontario outside the 416 area code.
I suspect the polls are underreporting the Conservative and NDO support by at least a couple of points each, and overestimating the Liberal support significantly.
I agree with other bloggers that the polls are not telling the full story.
Canadians are paying attention but with the margins of error on each of the polls the writers of the stories can spin it in favour of whoever they want. Naturally it is the Liberals.
However, I do think there is a growing frustration with the Liberals in the MSM. However, will it translate into more balanced reporting I don’t think so.
I think the Liberal support is thin and wide and come election day they are going to get the surprise of their lives when Prime Minister Stephen Harper begins a new day for Canada.
Polls…schmolls.
Stephen Harper will be Prime Minister Stephen Harper on January 23, 2006.
When you vote there should be a place on the ballot for “undecided”. If “undecided” gets more votes then that seat should remain vacant until the next election,where they will once again will be asked who they want to represent them in parliment. “Undecided” will again be a choice.
Check this poll out….Toronto Sun Dec 27 05
Toronto Sun Poll
It may be basic, but most of these polls while as unscientific as those rigged ones done by the supposed professional pollsters, show the pulse of the public.
My point since I joined, keeping all of these polls in mind - all polls should be made illegal as a part of any election campaign.
There is way too much emphasis put on polls and sure enough, the day before the election, there will be a major poll come out showing the Liberals all but winning the election, which will be more than enough to sway undecided voters.
A pox on polls.
I am in total agreement, polling - like many other media facilitators/flatulence are much too easy for evil to manipulate etc. I think that polling should not be allowed..hmm..though I don’t like the idea of shutting the media down in any arena. The problem is that long gone are the days of reporting and here to stay are the days where all types of media influence the easily led masses. Especially the CBC or your Global news anchors/talking heads..it never ceases to amaze me how truly “stupid” the average person is..and also how much the average person when aroused can actually accomplish. Hmm..look no further than the former Soviet Union where it costs nothing for a pint of Vodka but a loaf of bread is a fortune by comparison. Why do you think the socialist/communist - Liberals/NDP want to legalize everything from drugs to ..well anything that rewards destructive behavior?! Give the masses some beer and popcorn and keep them in line!!! Or you’re un-Canadian!
The media has enough ways to manipulate the public (see picture of “King Paul” under the crown) - they won’t miss the polls and they won’t be shut down.
Since it’s mostly the major media outlets (TV/paper) that these polls are done for, the tail is wagging the dog in the sense that they are telling us why we should vote a certain way, not the candidates. I realize that they are being manipulated by political parties but is the public who suffers in the end. I’m all for a free press but there comes a time when there has to be limits.
Political parties throw out enough crap to voters without their media whores (CBC, CTV, Global, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail) doing their job for them in the form of polls.
Strategic Council Poll Says Fears of Canada’s Fresh Water Running Off The Edge of The Earth Are Real.
You know THEY don’t make up stats they can’t prove - with another poll!
I’ll bet those 905-416 dupes are getting plenty tired of answering the phone!
Well Canwest Global is at it again. I’m glad you caught this. I have been disgusted with the Asper’s since they fired Mills from the Citizen. They say it is because he didn’t run it by higher ups when he called for the prime ministers resignation. He was an editor. It was an editorial.
A site that outlines all of their ignorances is CanWest Watch.
Nice post Proud.
One of the things that a lot of people forget about polling is that in a sample of 1100 or so people (deemed accurate) is that 40% of them don’t vote.
If you ask an apolitical person who s/he supports politically, and that person is not politically inclined, s/he will respond with an answer that reflects what little s/he knows - Liberal.
Polls should be asking the question - “Did you have an opportunity to vote in the last election” (a somewhat soft ask if they will vote this time).
If the answer is “No”, then they should be removed from the sample.
That would really change the results.
Post #17 Link to CanWest Watch - did not work. Try this.
CanWest Watch
Thanks conservativegal. I appreciate you covering my hiney on that one. It’s not my site, but I think everyone should realize how lopsided their towns media should be.
For instance, here in Ottawa, we have five daily newspapers. Four of them belong to the Asper’s Canwest media empire. Ironically, Liberals are pro choice….just not when it comes to the news Canadians can read in print.
Geesh –this is embaressing. Sure the media is biased – but in your search for ANYTHING to prove this, you make yourselves look like morons. The story of this election is whether or not the Liberal government will remain. The only party that can change this is the conservatives. Do you HONESTLY expect the headline to read: “Liberals fail to gain ground†against who?! You really don’t help our cause by your lack of understanding.
“Our cause”, Karl?
How do we look like morons? And what don’t we understand?
...That the majority of the media has incestuous ties back to the Liberals? Look into who owns what…The Aspers (CanWest/Global), The Honderich’s (TorStar), Bell Globemedia (CTV, The Globe and Mail,)and the mother of all…the taxpayer funded CBC.
Ask yourself why there is a CBCWatch, a CanWest watch…...is it a fan club - no, it’s people who are either offended by the slant of a story, or the subject matter.
Exactly, conservativegal!
Yes, “our causeâ€! Why do the liberals keep winning? It’s because we do not offer a reasonable alternative to most people. We should act above the MSM – stop digging for shit and slandering people. We are supposed to above that. The Liberals persecute people for their beliefs – but those of us to the right are often not much better (better, but often, not much)!
As I said, of course the media is biased – but we can’t scream at every headline that doesn’t have a conservative spin – especially those that aren’t really biased to begin with. Pick the obvious battles and show, through logic, why we are better..
Which party used a picture of Duceppe & Harper for a purpose other than what was?
Which party coined the phrase “beer & popcorn” and insulted parents everywhere?
Which party compared a candidate to a dog & called the federal NDP leader an a**hole?
Answer to all of the above - The Liberals.
I think the Conservatives are well above that and do provide a “reasonable” alternative - ethics, a real platform all done without slandering the opposition.
By the way - what would be a “reasonable alternative” to the Conservative platform that would make people abandon the Liberals?
And yes -there are extreme right wingers who sink to this level, but from what I’ve seen, the extreme lefties are by far the most vocal and slanderous.
Here’s a suggestion, Karl: start your own web site. That’s what I did. And you can spend your time and money doing as you please. Let the liberal media grab every Canadian, heart and soul, as it has done, very effectively, for years. Yes, letting the liberal media get away with it has been an excellent strategy. Let’s not learn a thing!
And I’ll go ahead and do what I’ve done for the past few years, and point it all out. I’ll root out liberals, and their spin, at every opportunity.
I’m not sorry my methods don’t meet with your approval, Karl. Frankly, you sound like a liberal, to me. Only a liberal, or someone who simply doesn’t get it (often one and the same), would make the kind of suggestions you are making.
And I’ll thank you to stop calling me, and by extension everyone here—a “moron”, and so on. And I insist you abide by my rules and not swear here.
Your slight contribution here has been nothing but wholly negative and bitter. That tells us something about your urge for a big conservative win.
I agree, Joel.
Again, I ask, Karl. “Our cause?”
I know a plant and a Liberal several miles away.
Sorry for swearing – I was just annoyed. I think Stephen Harper is doing a better job this time – less smear and more ideas. That’s how the conservatives can win the election – which they won’t – and everyon here KNOWS it. A reasonable alternative platform – the conservatives have it – but when they get down to the trenches, their message is lost. There is a reason most other Canadians don’t trust us..
Start my own blog – no thanks. I’ve been a regular reader for awhile – and I apprecite about 90% of what is said – but it’s the 10% BS that annoys me. I don’t consider myself a hippocrite, so I get annoyed when positions I support gets soured by the same tactics used by others.
BTW - I resent being called a Liberal - just because I don’t agree with our approach on everything. If I have a beef, shouldn’t I share it? Granted, I could have approached it more diplomatically..
Unfortunately most people get their election information from watching TV (78% was a figure that I heard the other day) and the conservative talk radio personalities don’t reach most TV watchers. So for someone who doesn’t do his or her own homework, there must be a built-in tilt to the left.
Harper has been the ideas guy this time around. It would not surprise me that some PC planks get copied/stolen and nailed into the Liberal platform, with the Libs counting on Canadians’ collectively short memory as to whether it was the Conservatives actually introduced them. I don’t expect much that’s worthwhile in terms of new ideas.
Anyone notice early in the campaign when the CTV was showing pictures of the Canadian hostages in Iraq that the picture they showed just happened to be the front page of the Globe and Mail and the camera just happened to be panned back enough that the pictures were quite small and the other story on the front page just happened to be HARPER PROMISES SSM VOTE!!!!?
Nice way to exploit a potential tragedy for your political master’s benefit.
Of course the next night the CBC felt that that had made them look bad so while they were doing their cute little feel good piece about how much work it is to get someone elected they had some woman talking and getting herself cup of coffee then having a look at the newpaper on the counter, all very homey feeling, and suprise suprise, the paper was opened up to, you guessed it HARPER SSM!!!!!.
Most of the media in this country are either shameless or unemployed.