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New CTV - Globe and Mail poll shows Liberal TV ads failure, growing Conservative tide

The Liberals will pull out all the stops and expose themselves even more stridently as a political party that is beneath contempt and clearly unfit to govern, in this last week of the campaign, particularly in light of news like this late breaking news:

Grit attack ads don’t dent
Tory popularity: poll

Despite a barrage of Liberal attack ads over the last five days, the Conservative party’s lead over the Liberals continues to slowly grow, says a new poll.

“It’s a Tory juggernaut,” Tim Woolstencroft of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca on Sunday, adding the Conservatives are within striking distance of a majority government.

The Strategic Counsel conducted the polling between Jan. 11, 12 and 14 for CTV and The Globe and Mail. Here are the national support numbers (percentage point change from Dec. 31 to Jan. 3-4, the last time the Grits and Tories were tied 32-32, is in brackets):

Conservatives: 40 per cent (+8)
Liberals: 27 per cent (-5)
NDP: 16 per cent (-1)
Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (-2)
Greens: 6 per cent (unchanged)
In Canada outside Quebec, the Tories hold a 45-31 lead over the Liberals.

The Quebec numbers had Woolstencroft saying this could be a very good election for federalism in Quebec.

Here are the Quebec numbers (percentage point change from Dec. 31 to Jan. 3-4 in brackets):

Bloc Quebecois: 43 per cent (-9)
Conservatives: 26 per cent (+14)
Liberals: 17 per cent (-8)
NDP: 9 per cent (+2)
Greens: 5 per cent (+1)
Inside Montreal, the Liberals lead the Tories 23-19, which makes for a statistical tie. The Bloc has 46 per cent support.

Outside Montreal, the Conservatives have emerged as the clear federalist alternative. The Bloc has 41 per cent support, while the Tories sit at 32 per cent and the Liberals at only 12 per cent.

Ontario is another province where the Conservatives are poised to make a huge breakthrough. Here are the provincial support numbers (percentage point change from Jan. 4-7, when the Liberals last led, is in brackets):

Conservatives: 40 per cent (+4)
Liberals: 33 per cent (-8)
NDP: 19 per cent (+2)
Greens: 8 per cent (+2)

[…] While Stephen Harper doesn’t have the best net impression numbers with voters, he still towers over Paul Martin (point change from Dec. 18-20 poll in brackets):

Gilles Duceppe: +44 (-6)
Jack Layton: +30 (+8)
Stephen Harper: +12 (+22)
Paul Martin: -22 (-20)
Woolstencroft said Harper has a better impression rating in Quebec (+30) than the West (+16).

Despite the barrage of Liberal attack ads aimed directly at Harper, Woolstencroft said Harper is still the man Canadians trust most to be prime minister (32 per cent vs. 25 per cent for Martin, unchanged from recent polls).

Strategic Counsel tried to measure the feelings of decided Liberal and Conservative voters on how they felt about whether the anticipated winner would be good or bad for the country (change from Jan. 3-5 poll in brackets):

% say Liberals will win and that this would be good for the country: 21 (-17)
% say Liberals will win and that this would be bad for the country: 7 (-16)
% say Conservatives will win and that this would be good for the country: 52 (+29)
% say Conservatives will win and that this would be bad for the country: 20 (+13)

Joel Johannesen
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